Unsolved Mysteries: 30 Million Men “Not” At Work
“Tonight, on Unsolved Mysteries…”
Robert Stack started capturing folks’ attention back in 1987 when NBC introduced a documentary series that profiled real-life mysteries from unsolved crimes to conspiracy theories to missing people. The iconic television show has had many lives over the years, with stints on NBC, CBS, Lifetime, and Spike.
More recently, Netflix introduced a reboot of the show and, much like its former iterations, Unsolved Mysteries is incredibly popular with a growing fan base. After it released the first episodes of season one in July 2020, Netflix even reported that credible tips started pouring in. The original series also benefited from thousands of tips over the years, playing a role in several unsolved cases.
Today, we’re also talking about an unsolved mystery—and maybe you can help us uncover the truth.
We’re not considering a gruesome murder or a paranormal encounter. Instead, we’re taking a closer look at the disturbing disappearance of 30 million men from the workforce. The chart below depicts a mind-boggling decline in the labor force participation rate of American men.
Back in October 1949, the labor force participation rate peaked at 87.4%, and it’s been on a steady decline ever since. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, men’s current labor participation rate in America is 67.7%. To put this into perspective, approximately one-third of men between the ages of 16 and 64 are not looking for work.[1]
It’s important to understand that the Labor Force Participation Rate is a broader measure of “not working.” It’s more comprehensive than the unemployment rate, which only measures how many people are looking for work as a percentage of the total of those working and looking for a job. If you’re not looking for work, you’re not considered “unemployed.” The labor force participation rate measures the number of people looking for work or working as a percentage of all people in the demographic measured.
So 1/3 of working-age men are not looking for work.
Why?
Theory #1: Early retirement. The Baby Boomers born in the early 60s are nearing retirement age, and many used the pandemic as an excuse to retire early. Pew Research recently reported that more than 28 million Baby Boomers exited the workforce as of the third quarter of 2020.[2] The reality is that remote work wasn’t necessarily an option for many older Americans, and the pandemic posed too many health risks for others.
But early retirement isn’t a new phenomenon. U.S. News & World Report revealed that nearly half of retirees exited the workforce early[3], whether due to disabilities, health issues, layoffs, or to care for family members. Others were able to retire early thanks to savings, retirement plans, inheritance, or a financial bet that paid off. So one theory is, men are retiring earlier.
Theory #2: Focused on education and entering the workforce later. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 94 million Americans who are 25 or older hold an advanced degree (associate, bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree). That accounts for approximately 42% of the U.S. population age 25 or older.[4]
Considering these statistics, it’s easy to conclude that the younger members of the working-age population are earning degrees before entering the workforce. So, that could account for the lack of men working, right? For some college-aged men, this is undoubtedly the case. But it’s not necessarily the overarching reason why young American men aren’t working.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that enrolled students at colleges and universities are predominately women. Nearly 60% of college students are women. For the current academic year, college applications from women totaled more than 3.8 million, while applications from men came in at about 2.82 million. Some are even projecting that for every man that earns a degree, two women will earn one.[5]
Overall, there’s a lot of discussion and mystery to the drop-off in the labor participation rate for male Americans. Aside from unemployment rates, early retirements, and college educations, other theories circle around men playing the stock market, working for cash under the table, or simply living off their parents or other family members for extended periods.
No matter the reason, more than one-third of working-age men are not at work. In my opinion, this is not a good sign of the U.S. economy as it depends on the productivity of all working-age Americans. For whatever reason, this disturbing trend bears watching. More so than the unemployment rate.
Please click here for important disclosures.
Reference Articles
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/09/the-pandemic-drove-these-americans-into-early-retirement.html
[3] https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/aging/articles/the-ideal-retirement-age-and-why-you-wont-retire-by-then
[4] https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/analysis/2021/07/01/how-many-americans-have-college-degrees/
[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-university-fall-higher-education-men-women-enrollment-admissions-back-to-school-11630948233